Ranking Teams in Every MLB Division
Part 1: American League East
1. Toronto Blue Jays
Record Prediction: 104–58
Just missing the playoffs in 2021 with a 91–71 record, the Blue Jays made some major splashes in the offseason, signing all-star SP Kevin Gausman, and just recently trading for 3B Matt Chapman. While a 91–71 record is nothing to be ashamed of, the Blue Jays underperformed, massively. The Red Sox and Yankees, who both finished one game above the Jays with 92–70 records, had +80 and +42 run differentials (Pythagorean W-Ls of 88–74 and 86–76). On the other hand, the Blue Jays had a massive differential of +183 (Pythagorean W-L of 99–63). While not perfect, run differential and Pythagorean wins are good indicators of how lucky or unlucky a team was. The Blue Jays have proven to be an offensive juggernaut, flaunting a line up featuring the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr, George Springer, Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Cavan Biggio, and now Matt Chapman. And with the addition of Chapman, arguably the best defensive 3B in the league, the Jays get a much needed defensive presence in the field. While they lost AL Cy Young recipient Robbie Ray in free agency, they were able to recover by signing Kevin Gausman, who’s coming off an excellent season pitching for the San Francisco Giants. If all goes fairly well, the Blue Jays have a change to be the powerhouse of the American League.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Record Prediction: 95–67
To the surprise of no one, the Rays will most likely continue their analytically-driven success in 2022. An offense led by 2021 Rookie of the Year and former #1 prospect Wander Franco, who the Rays recently extended, and a plethora of other productive bats like Brandon Lowe, Mike Zunino, Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows, Yandy Diaz, and Ji-Man Choi. The Rays also flaunt an excellent defense, with the likes of aforementioned Mike Zunino, Kevin Kiermaier, and Manuel Margot. And of course, the Rays will as always have one of the deepest pitching staffs in the league, featuring Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, Luis Patino, Corey Kluber, Drew Rasmussen, Andrew Kittredge, Pete Fairbanks, and *a lot* of others.
3. New York Yankees
Record Prediction: 89–73
There’s certainly been no shortage of think pieces about the Yankees upcoming 2022 season. Their offseason was… interesting, making no major splashes in either the trade market or free agency, whiffing on targets such as Carlos Correa, Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, and others. Likely the biggest move of the Yankees offseason was flipping Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela to the Twins for 2015 MVP Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who’s proven to be a great glove, and had a sneaky good 3.7 rWAR in 2021, despite his below average bat. While they did have a disappointing offseason, the Yankees are still a very good roster. The rotation is undoubtedly one of the best in the league, with Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, Jameson Taillon, Nestor Cortes, and now Luis Severino, who will pitch his first (hopefully) full season since 2018. Other than Kiner-Falefa, the lineup is still full of premier bats, like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo, and more productive bats like Josh Donaldson, Anthony Rizzo, and DJ LeMahieu. The Yankees will also be banking on bounceback seasons from Gleyber Torres and Aaron Hicks. Overall, there isn’t much to be concerned about regarding the Yankees floor, and I fully expect them to be in the race for a wild card spot.
4. Boston Red Sox
Record Prediction: 85–77
If healthy, the Red Sox have both a high floor and ceiling. Unfortunately, they’re much more likely to perform near their floor. Without a doubt Boston’s biggest strength will be their lineup. Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez, Trevor Story, Alex Verdugo, Bobby Dalbec and Enrique Hernandez will be a pain in the ass for opposing pitchers. However, pretty much everything else is a big question mark. Chris Sale has dealt with health issues over the past 3 seasons, but if he can stay healthy he’s without a doubt a great ace to have, and Boston also has Nathan Eovaldi and Tanner Houck, who I would consider an above average 2–3. Outside of that, the pitching is questionable at best. As it stands right now, their 4–5 is Michael Wacha and Nick Pivetta, and their best bullpen arms are newly acquired Jake Diekman, Garrett Whitlock, Matt Barnes, and Josh Taylor. By far Boston’s biggest liability is their defense, with both Bogaerts and Devers being arguably the worst defenders in the league at their respective positions.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Record Prediction: 59–103
I mean, yeah. There are no winning expectations from the Orioles this season, as they currently sit dead last in total payroll at a pathetic $30.3 million. Their main focus will be developing their young players, most notably former #1 pick and #1 catching prospect Adley Rutschman. Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Trey Mancini and Austin Hays are also notable names in the offense. That’s all there really is to say.
